Michigan State has over-performed the year-end S&P+ numbers by almost 10 points per game in three games against Harbaugh and over two touchdowns per game against the spread. However, Dantonio’s teams have over-performed against Harbaugh even more than they did against his less successful predecessors. He is 2-2 against Harbaugh and Lloyd Carr as compared to 6-1 against Rodriguez and Hoke.
A common refrain by Wolverine supporters is that Dantonio feasted on two bad coaches.
#MARK DANTONIO WHITE PAGES NJ FULL#
Michigan State raises its game against Michigan to an even larger degree than the full numbers express. Remove those games, and we would expect Michigan’s S&P+ rating to go up while Michigan State’s goes down. It gets even starker for Michigan, because these year-end S&P+ numbers include the results of Michigan-Michigan State games. If the Spartans overperform the weekly ratings by the 7.6-point season-ending average, then Michigan will barely win. Michigan would be a 12.1-point favorite on a neutral field in 2018 according to S&P+, which translates to S&P+ making Michigan a nine-point favorite in East Lansing.
The difference is not as great as the point spread disparity, but it is still significant. The average game has featured Michigan State outperforming the final-season S&P+ expectation by 7.6 points. Michigan State has over-performed what S&P+ would’ve predicted at the end of the year in eight of 11 games against Michigan under Dantonio, including five in a row. Since Michigan State won by four, the Spartans over-performed final S&P+ by 5.9 points.) Again, the data point to Michigan State exceeding its normal level when the Spartans play the Wolverines. Since the game was played in Ann Arbor, that would’ve led to Michigan being a 1.9-point favorite, if they’d played the game at the end of the year. For instance, in 2017, Michigan State was 1.1 points better than Michigan by S&P+ at the end of the year. (Note: there is a three-point adjustment for home field in this table, as is traditional in point spreads. Michigan, against season-ending S&P+ Year S&P+ can compare teams on a week-to-week basis, which Bill Connelly uses to make picks against the spread each week.īut let’s try something different: let’s use team ratings from the end of each season to show the Spartans really do play better than their usual game when they go up against Michigan. Michigan State outperforms season-ending S&P+ against Michigan as well. He is generally good in big games, but on a whole other level against Michigan. Project that to 2018’s game, in which Michigan is a touchdown favorite, and you get a six-point Spartan victory.īy comparison, Dantonio is 5-4 against the spread against Ohio State, 5-3 against Wisconsin, and 6-3 against Penn State. The average for Michigan State covering is 13 points. Michigan State has covered by double digits in eight of the 10 games.
In short, Michigan covered in its first game against Dantonio (and then only with two late touchdowns to reverse a 10-point deficit) and then Michigan State has covered the last 10. Thanks to the helpful Odds Shark database, you can enjoy this carnage: Against Michigan, Michigan State beats Vegas’ expectations basically every year. Aside from being critical with respect to winning the division and therefore the conference, it’s the regular season game about which Spartan fans care the most.Īs one might expect for a coach who made his bones as an assistant at Michigan State and Ohio State, Dantonio puts a lot of importance on the Michigan game. Success against Michigan State’s archrival is a sine qua non for a Michigan State coach. And his teams always play well against Michigan. His staffs are generally not elite at recruiting, but they find players to fill roles and are good at development. His defenses will generally be very good, especially against the run. One of only 10 Power 5 coaches who’ve been at the same place for a decade-plus is Mark Dantonio, in his 12th season in East Lansing.īased on his first 11 years, we can make a few definitive statements. As coaches move between jobs frequently, it is hard to have enough of a sample size to make any sort of judgment about how one guy does against another team.
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